Oscars Night: Who WILL, Who SHOULD, and the ACTUAL BEST Films and Performances of 2025
Film scholar and critic Jack Hanley helps you CRUSH your Oscar ballot by breaking down who WILL win, who SHOULD win, and the alternative contenders the Oscars may have been ignored in the top categories—but that may ultimately come to define the cinematic year that was 2025.
Actress In A Supporting Role
Who WILL Win: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) Upset Alert!
Who SHOULD Win: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
ACTUAL Best: Tânia Maria (The Secret Agent)
Actor In A Supporting Role
Who WILL Win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Who SHOULD Win: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
ACTUAL Best: David Jonsson (The Long Walk)
Best Editing
Who WILL Win: One Battle After Another
Who SHOULD Win: One Battle After Another
ACTUAL Best: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Who WILL Win: Autumn Durald (Sinners)
Who SHOULD Win: Autumn Durald (Sinners)
ACTUAL Best: Łukasz Żal (Hamnet)
Best Documentary
Who WILL Win: The Perfect Neighbor
Who SHOULD Win: The Perfect Neighbor
ACTUAL Best: My Undesirable Friends: Part I- Last Air in Moscow
Best International Feature
Who WILL Win: Sentimental Value (Norway)
Who SHOULD Win: The Secret Agent (Brazil)
ACTUAL Best: On Becoming A Guinea Fowl (Zambia)
Best Actress
Who WILL Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Who SHOULD Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
ACTUAL BEST: Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)
Best Actor
Who WILL Win: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) Upset Alert!
Who SHOULD Win: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
ACTUAL BEST: Abou Sangaré (Souleymane’s Story)
Best Director
Who WILL Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Who SHOULD Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
ACTUAL BEST: Rungano Nyoni (On Becoming A Guinea Fowl)
Best Picture
Who WILL Win: One Battle After Another
Who SHOULD Win: The Secret Agent
ACTUAL BEST: The Secret Agent
Jack Hanley (Denver Film Critics Society) is a film scholar, podcaster, and critic based in Boulder, CO. He is a programmer with the Chicago Underground Film Festival, Slamdance’s Indies Awards, and the Boulder International Film Festival. He is one-half of Blindspotting: A Film Discovery Podcast and the founder of the Reel Horrors Short Film Festival. Find him at Kinophilia on Medium and at HanleyOnFilm.com